The Five Rules of Risk

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Animation by Josh Sherrington
Sound by Graham Haerther (www.Haerther.net)
Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
Music by epidemicsound.com
Select footage courtesy the AP Archive
References:
[1] www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/pedestrian_safety/index.html
[2] www.statista.com/statistics/198029/total-number-of-us-licensed-drivers-by-state/
[3] www.statista.com/statistics/191660/fatality-rate-per-100000-licensed-drivers-in-the-us-since-1988/
[4] www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6843304/
[5] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
[6] www-jstor-org.ezproxy.is.ed.ac.uk/stable/pdf/1727970.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Ac48a7fe2f9c0fedf29cba859db4daebd
[7] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
[8] journal.sjdm.org/7303a/jdm7303a.htm

نظر

  1. Wendover Productions

    Wendover Productionsپیش 6 روز

    We got some math wrong. The annual fatality odds for licensed drivers in the US is actually 1 in 6,000 which translates to lifetime odds of about 1 in 75.

  2. Stephan Brun

    Stephan Brunپیش روز

    I do have to wonder what happens if one omits behaviour like driving drunk, which would increase risk dramatically. Do the odds of death/injury then fall, and by how much?

  3. Alex Baker

    Alex Bakerپیش روز

    @Ch LePrince It isn't ehven number of people are this can be can easily be accounted for. It should be deaths/hour/capita or even deaths/distance/capita. Even this is a fallacy, as experience and conditions of both driving and mountain biking come into play. Are the deaths of mountain bikes stacked in the inexperienced or very experience buy extreme mountain bikers or somewhere else, just like driving deaths is it the Highways or the Residential roads? Or is it actually the conditions, i.e. snow, ice, darkness etc.

  4. Alex Baker

    Alex Bakerپیش روز

    That isn't really relevant anyway as it should be amount the activity is done per year. This isn't your best made video ever I am afraid. Also it would depend where you drove, where as any form of mountain biking would have a risk as even falling over stationary could mean your head hits a rock and you die, the odds of this are very low. The equivalent is sitting in a parked car, how long until you die? A car will hit that parked car at some point, but even then it has so many safety features you still probably wouldn't die.

  5. Namefag

    Namefagپیش روز

    Actually paused the video and run the math because I felt it was way too high. Glad to know it was a mistake.

  6. ACIDesignsUY

    ACIDesignsUYپیش 2 روز

    Sorry but the kaleidoscope was really annoying couldn't watch to the end and unlike

  7. Andrea Foglia

    Andrea Fogliaپیش 8 ساعت

    Okay the fatality rate of driving is higher than mountain biking, but what about injury rate? Possibly parents were more worried about injuries rather than straight up death

  8. Chris Doms

    Chris Domsپیش 8 ساعت

    Your maths on vehicle deaths - 1 in 600 per year - is laughably far off. It's not even close, your LIFETIME risk of dying in a car is still orders of magnitude less than that.

  9. jayjay.24

    jayjay.24پیش 9 ساعت

    When comparing life and risk, there is a catch 22 - because when I step out of the door I risk my life, but if I don't, I don't live it.

  10. Rage Knight

    Rage Knightپیش 10 ساعت

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="161">2:41</a> Now we know where Elon Musk got his concept for his Tesla rover.

  11. Casey Berner

    Casey Bernerپیش 11 ساعت

    This assumes risk is perceived as absolute. I don’t mountain bike because I think I will likely die, but because I don’t want to injure myself.

  12. spaghetti is deadi

    spaghetti is deadiپیش 13 ساعت

    came for board game, got existentialism.

  13. Ronak Nikam

    Ronak Nikamپیش 13 ساعت

    I hope i don't' die after watching this video this dude made pandemic video before

  14. Brandon Waters

    Brandon Watersپیش 15 ساعت

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="480">8:00</a> railroads is misspelled. "Rairoads"

  15. LexieAssassin

    LexieAssassinپیش 16 ساعت

    "If you kill one, it is a tragedy. If you kill ten million, it is a statistic."

  16. kolim jone

    kolim joneپیش 17 ساعت

    "Why do you walk outside?" I don't. I'm in social quarantine. Checkmate buddy.

  17. قيس الجدياني | QGamer_Ar

    قيس الجدياني | QGamer_Arپیش 17 ساعت

    You cant compare driving to mountain biking The number of drivers are much higher than bikers

  18. kolim jone

    kolim joneپیش 17 ساعت

    more exposure to cows than sharks for a fatality to even occur; I don't think you'd say based on that alone that it's riskier to work with cows than it would be to swim with shark

  19. caquitows

    caquitowsپیش 18 ساعت

    Eu fiz uma legenda em português-brasileiro... se alguém puder me ajudar a deixar disponível já está na área de legendas do vídeo...

  20. Sam Garcia

    Sam Garciaپیش 18 ساعت

    I think some risk numbers are just "correlation not causation" figures.

  21. Seth Apex

    Seth Apexپیش 19 ساعت

    well consdering humans will always have some degree of error in our risk management system, our leaders will always over shoot or undershoot the risks of some things.

  22. S Edwards

    S Edwardsپیش 21 ساعت

    This video is riddled with logical fallacies and I've only been watching for 3 minutes

  23. Michael Harrison

    Michael Harrisonپیش 21 ساعت

    Love how he used a Tesla truck as the vehicle representation👍🏼👍🏼 ironically those vehicles will probably change the death rate statistics

  24. ХОРОШО

    ХОРОШОپیش 21 ساعت

    It's unbelievable most people can't understand such simple things.

  25. Captive

    Captiveپیش 22 ساعت

    Waited for risks of climate change as an example

  26. stinksmcc

    stinksmccپیش 23 ساعت

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="134">2:14</a> wasatch crest!!

  27. Joseph Waddell

    Joseph Waddellپیش 23 ساعت

    Flawed? Really? How about the fact that mountain biking has no useful utility in our lives; while driving is necessary to accomplish nearly everything.... Most of us have jobs away from home. Simple as...

  28. psammiad

    psammiadپیش 23 ساعت

    Walking outside vs staying at home isn't zero-sum - a huge number of accidents happen in the home. The risk of not getting exercise is very high, etc.

  29. Jackamomo

    Jackamomoپیش روز

    I went driving along a motorway once. It was more scary to me than a roller coaster as it was clear I was taking my life into my hands. I wish the government would make proper public transport. I don't intend to ever drive again.

  30. Sanajit Das

    Sanajit Dasپیش روز

    Did you just draw a image of tesla cyber truck

  31. Urza9814

    Urza9814پیش روز

    I think how much I value my life is fairly irrelevant for a risk calculation. When you weigh the value of the reward against the value of your life, how do you get the value of that reward? I think typically it could be understood in terms of mitigating some other risk. So it's not a series of isolated risk vs reward calculations, it's a single infinite web of risk vs risk vs risk. Driving is fine, because not getting to work or not getting to the grocery store is also pretty risky. Mountain biking after school isn't, because the risk from lack of exercise and entertainment isn't as severe. Or because there are less risky alternatives that solve the problem just as well. I also wonder if the thing about the 100th life having less value than the first could just be the effect of the other principles. I think your example was a terrorist attack which kills a few hundred being about as significant as a natural disaster that kills thousands...but while natural disasters aren't often predictable, they are known. They tend to be regional too which can make then seem more voluntary. You know what disasters might happen in your area, you know how to prepare for them, you move if you really don't want to take that risk. So that's a semi-known, voluntary risk against a generally unknown and "mandatory" risk. Not quite the same thing. Could even be as simple as more people dying means more people discussing it, which means more explanations for it are given making it seem more known or predictable too. Finally...humans wouldn't have evolved if we didn't also care about the survival of our family/tribe/species...which explains the "illogical" behavior around mandatory/unknown/high exposure risks. We're more willing to accept that we might die as long as it doesn't wipe out all of us at once.

  32. Ariel Kass

    Ariel Kassپیش روز

    I don't understand the statistics claims here. <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="115">1:55</a>,000 change of dying if walking outside? reference 1 doesn't have that value. what it says is that there is a pedestrian death once every 88 mins in the US. So how many people walk outside every 88 mins? how many of those seconds of those walks were people not killed at? clearly dividing the number of pedestrian deaths per minute divided by the amount of persons minutes walked in the US every year, will show that the odds of dying by walking outside is extremely low. so maybe some other calculation? maybe the amount of pedestrian deaths in a given year divided by total amount of deaths in the US in a given year? that too doesn't reveal the correct risk, since it doesn't consider all the people in the US that DIDN'T DIE in that year. So the correct calculation should be the probability of dying in a given year * the probability of dying as a pedestrian hit by a car. Clearly this is much much lower than <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="115">1:55</a>,000 claimed in the video this is the same for all other odds/risks presented. i don't think anyone would walk outside if the odds were so high. they simply aren't and that's why everyone does it. and in regards to mountain biking - the magnitude of the 2 death rates is simply nowhere near comparable. without taking into consider the trillions of driving hours of all americans a year is a warping of reality. what we all know intuitively is that if only 10 people do something and 1 person die due to a crash (for example), this activity is extremely more riskier than a different activity that has trillions of people doing it, but of all deaths during that activity 100% were caused by a crash (for example). the shear rarity of the death event itself is being ignored in the considerations presented in this video and skew what we all intuitively consider. that said, once the math is corrected, then indeed we all consider the value of risk vs. reward and make decisions accordingly

  33. bowen voowy

    bowen voowyپیش روز

    "infinity multiplied by anything is infinity" zero enters the chat

  34. Vlad Pintea-Gärtner

    Vlad Pintea-Gärtnerپیش روز

    if 2/3 of people drive of course the numbers go up, the number of people that mountainbike likely leads to less risk because of selection bias, the people that do are less likely than the average person to suffer an accident in the situation; if 2/3 of people did mountain bike the numbers would go up, maybe not to the same number but yeah. In the US 1 person dies by a shark every 2 years, cows kill 20 people per year; Does that mean cows are more dangerous than sharks? No, it probably indicates that there's considerably more exposure to cows than sharks for a fatality to even occur; I don't think you'd say based on that alone that it's riskier to work with cows than it would be to swim with sharks.

  35. bowen voowy

    bowen voowyپیش روز

    Wealth is relative. The comparison with the dollar doesn’t hold up because in the case of a dollar, the perceived value loss at higher quantities is logically true as well. 10$ is

  36. kityew23

    kityew23پیش روز

    The animation in the video was really distracting

  37. LoungeSpecialist

    LoungeSpecialistپیش روز

    All of us Christians watching this: NBD

  38. bob smith

    bob smithپیش روز

    Cough cough, cdc, cough, cough

  39. Julian Manieson Jr

    Julian Manieson Jrپیش روز

    Is there not some Irony in this video ending with the words "or someone else will take it" re the domains?

  40. Marc Goodman

    Marc Goodmanپیش روز

    We drive motorized vehicles because of the convenience, utility, necessity and pleasure they provide therefore we accept a higher risk (though we rarely think about it). We don't ride mountain bikes for the same reasons we drive therefore we accept a lower risk. If the very last image was some sort of 'dig' at the need for mass self-isolation, when was the last time so many did so much for so many? Thank you for not coviding.

  41. jun ski

    jun skiپیش روز

    not walk outside is guaranteed death by hunger.

  42. Grzegorz Dyk

    Grzegorz Dykپیش روز

    Ha! I love it how you used a Cybertruck silhouette to represent a car :D

  43. Axel Petersson

    Axel Peterssonپیش روز

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="163">2:43</a> this is true and i understand your point but comapred to other sports like soccer or basket ball, Mountain bikini is more dangeroise

  44. Dean9419

    Dean9419پیش روز

    @wendoverproductions The numbering on the 'Activity or Technology' is wrong @ <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="497">8:17</a>, on the students side there's two #6's and #16 is missing

  45. Jan P

    Jan Pپیش 2 روز

    Comparing the risk of driving a car and the risk of mountain biking solely on the death toll is very skewed logic. Parents being against mountainbiking as a school activity is probably not because they are fearing their kids dying, but because of (severe) accidents, which especially untrained DO happen a lot.

  46. Wertsir

    Wertsirپیش 2 روز

    This video: “Why do you walk outside?” Coronavirus: “Let me stop you right there.”

  47. Tom Hammond

    Tom Hammondپیش 2 روز

    The moving kaleidoscope background is really disorienting and makes it harder to read FYI. Good video otherwise

  48. bodoti qwiu

    bodoti qwiuپیش 2 روز

    "infinity multiplied by anything is infinity" zero enters the chat

  49. Price Thomas

    Price Thomasپیش 2 روز

    I thought this was gonna be about a board game!

  50. SJG

    SJGپیش 2 روز

    I have always been completely baffled by everyones blind acceptance of cars. Everybody just acts as though there is nothing that needs to be fixed and that it is a completely safe thing to do. Everyone deploys the them but not me defense. "Oh somebody else will get hurt, but I'm a good driver." When in reality, we are all just as likely to get hit by the drunk driver and killed, just as a few in my life have been.

  51. bodoti qwiu

    bodoti qwiuپیش 2 روز

    With this lockdown entering the third month, about 6,300 people who were supposed to die in car accidents during these two months, are not going to die. Maybe you’re one

  52. kelvink9999

    kelvink9999پیش 2 روز

    Sadly this is why paintball isnt popular enough

  53. Tristan Möller

    Tristan Möllerپیش 2 روز

    Wealth is relative. The comparison with the dollar doesn’t hold up because in the case of a dollar, the perceived value loss at higher quantities is logically true as well. 10$ is as much money to someone who has 1000$, as 1000$ is to someone who 100,000$. It is us humans who assign value to the money, otherwise it would only be printed paper. Because that is the case, any perceived value equals the real value. If everybody was rich, nobody would be rich.

  54. Tobix

    Tobixپیش 2 روز

    Well, did not know that the risk to die while i go for a walk is 1/55.000. Maybe i should not go outside anymore.

  55. Harpax A

    Harpax Aپیش 2 روز

    In the end I would expect it to punch Trump & his Covid19 policies.. but guess Wendover love audiences too much... 😏

  56. Eman M

    Eman Mپیش 2 روز

    But I’ve been in more mountain bike accidents than I can remember and I’ve never ever been in a car accident

  57. Bill Kong

    Bill Kongپیش 2 روز

    Also I don't think it's not exactly lives that are worth saving. It's more like living that's worth saving. That's why it's such a tragedy when a 10 year old dies of cancer but we basically accept that 80 year olds will die of cancer. That's why so many people are insensitive to the human cost of Covid - the average age of a covid victim greater than the average age of total mortality.

  58. Bill Kong

    Bill Kongپیش 2 روز

    It's also not novelty that increases perceived risk. It's more like uncertainty gives a range of possible perceived risks. If you're a person who is risk averse then you will perceive risk at - say - the 99th percentile. Then a high uncertainty activity will seem very high risk because the chance of something terrible happening seems high. But some people are risk tolerant they may perceive risk at the 5th percentile. They'll look at the same event and think hey there's a very high chance that nothing bad at all will happen.

  59. Bill Kong

    Bill Kongپیش 2 روز

    The yardstick isn't disease the yardstick is total mortality. The only reason it looks like disease is because that's what currently dominates total mortality. This is very natural: we care about a new source of mortality when it significantly contributes to total mortality. That's basically how we evaluate everything.

  60. Bill Kong

    Bill Kongپیش 2 روز

    The example of driving is a perfect counterexample to the idea that prevalence is inversely proportional to acceptance. I think there's very much an opposite effect too. People don't want to be the only idiot getting killed. But if everyone is doing it, even if a lot of them are dying, then maybe this is how life is meant to be. People smoke and drink and drive and sometimes they go to war.

  61. Bill Kong

    Bill Kongپیش 2 روز

    There's some bad statistical interpretation in this video. I ride a bike a lot more than the average person and if I went off a 20 foot jump right now my chance of dying isn't 1/30,000 per year it'd be like 1/10 in 2 seconds along with 8/10 chance of serious injury. So most people, like me, evaluate this rationally, and then avoid doing the risky thing they can't manage. The reason why the risk of mountain bikers dying of mountain biking per year is so low is that they are subject to super strong self selection to be good at it, and even when they do they don't spend nearly as much time doing it as people spend driving cars: it's a recreational activity. So comparing per year population mortality for the two activity has basically no relevance for comparing instantaneous individual mortality.

  62. jawbreaker

    jawbreakerپیش 2 روز

    In a car you can choose to drive slowly and carefully and even if someone else hits you you will not die. You will die only if you do something stupid. On the other hand with the bike if you fall off a cliff your dead. Even if driving slowly if you fall you will hurt your knee.

  63. joe sharp

    joe sharpپیش 2 روز

    More risk to get injured mountain biking and is unimportant for daily life so I would say the risk involved in mountain biking is higher

  64. Andrew James

    Andrew Jamesپیش 2 روز

    ok kurzgesagt

  65. Nico

    Nicoپیش 2 روز

    Rule 1 (voluntary over involuntary risk) and rule 4 (new things riskier) really explain why people are so scared or not onboard with self driving cars

  66. Persona

    Personaپیش 2 روز

    "When people, somehow, get to decide what risk others face" **cuts to a crowd of people in face masks** very subtle...

  67. Wimbely Parkersson-Davis

    Wimbely Parkersson-Davisپیش 2 روز

    With this lockdown entering the third month, about 6,300 people who were supposed to die in car accidents during these two months, are not going to die. *Maybe you’re one of the 6,300.*

  68. Wimbely Parkersson-Davis

    Wimbely Parkersson-Davisپیش 2 روز

    With this lockdown entering the third month, about 4,000 people who were supposed to die in car accidents during these two months, are going to die. Maybe you’re one of the 4000

  69. ntt2k

    ntt2kپیش 2 روز

    This felt like an old-school Vsauce video

  70. Person Man

    Person Manپیش 2 روز

    "Voluntary" is defined confusingly here. Driving isn't voluntary for most people. What frames it to be voluntary?

  71. abbsnn cose

    abbsnn coseپیش 2 روز

    Title: The Five Rules of Risk Preview: Ryanair Me: you mean risk of breaking back?

  72. ACIDesignsUY

    ACIDesignsUYپیش 2 روز

    Sorry but the kaleidoscope was really annoying couldn't watch to the end and unlike

  73. abbsnn cose

    abbsnn coseپیش 2 روز

    Why do I feel like at the end of the video, he is directing that message to a certain president judging by the background video, cough cough trump cough cough*

  74. Better With Rum

    Better With Rumپیش 2 روز

    Sam is starting an insurance company ;)

  75. sion8

    sion8پیش 2 روز

    (<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="53">0:53</a>) Cue Vsauce's into music.

  76. Danyal

    Danyalپیش 2 روز

    mountain biking death stats is lower because high barrier to entry limits participation from only skilled and interested people, while driving is accessible to anyone.

  77. Daemon Magister

    Daemon Magisterپیش 2 روز

    This is just a death circle jerk video

  78. Paul Hamacher

    Paul Hamacherپیش 2 روز

    Well.. just another good video that points out how dumb we are as a species.

  79. Dani Büki

    Dani Bükiپیش 2 روز

    Alright, so I lost the little rules booklet, and looked up the rules online, and I still don't know what to do with this map, dice and little army figurines, but I think I know a bit more about how and why I over and underestimate the dangers of this world...

  80. João Paulo

    João Pauloپیش 2 روز

    One dollar will always be one dollar. Well, yes, but no. Inflation beat the value of a coin, so a dollar in the past gave you a room, but nowadays it gives you some candy.

  81. Karthik Selvarajan

    Karthik Selvarajanپیش 2 روز

    That guy got hit by a Cybertruck at <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="71">01:11</a>

  82. jeff kraus

    jeff krausپیش 2 روز

    Infinity times 0 equals the set of all real numbers.

  83. Causality_Education

    Causality_Educationپیش 2 روز

    Any Book Recommendations on risk?

  84. eurocowdotcom

    eurocowdotcomپیش 2 روز

    Please avoid that nausea inducing background in future.

  85. Ólafur Tryggvi Þorsteinsson

    Ólafur Tryggvi Þorsteinssonپیش 2 روز

    interesting

  86. Il Sopravvissuto

    Il Sopravvissutoپیش 2 روز

    Interesting

  87. Jesus Mind

    Jesus Mindپیش 2 روز

    life evaluated along a single fulcrum with only two variables, plus and minus. I wish you would simplify this, I mean life is not so complex as either or, one or two. I don't recall voluntarily being born, a big risk to life and I don't recall coming to the table of life to bet the farm, the farm I did not ask to inherit. Jerking off

  88. Abhijeet Singh

    Abhijeet Singhپیش 3 روز

    "- we could accept if air travel had the same level of risk." Proceeds to show Ryanair

  89. Jacob Yang

    Jacob Yangپیش 3 روز

    Why do I feel like at the end of the video, he is directing that message to a certain president judging by the background video, *cough* *cough* trump *cough* cough*